A War in a Dead End Street

What has America’s war against Afghanistan actually accomplished so far? A war, with which the German Chancellor declares “unlimited solidarity,” over and over again, almost as a ritual. In more than 1000 bombing sorties, the ruins of one of the poorest countries in the world have been further pulverized, 2 military hospitals have been destroyed, villages have been hit, civilians killed, of course, also soldiers, even from the ranks of the their own allies, the so-called Northern Alliance. The American Secretary of Defense goes regularly before the press to announce that everything is running according to plan. Unlimited solidarity, everything according to plan – and so each has his mantra, with which he tries to soothe his conscience and his people. But the American, amazed, had to admit that the resistance of the Taliban is stronger than expected. And even more: He admitted that it was possible that they would not find enemy number one, Osama bin Laden.

Anyone who until now thought that the super-power, which sent an entire armada to Asia, is endowed with higher wisdom, must now realize that its strategy is taking place at the political level of a regular’s table in a local pub. When one is attacked, one just has to strike back – somehow, even when this leads to a senseless shoot-out; even when it no longer has much to do with self-defense, because one doesn’t even hit the attackers; even when the danger of new strikes is not lessened but increased, because one provokes new strikes – from foreign regions or even from one’s own country.

How long do we still want to declare “unlimited solidarity” with all this, without being unlimitedly foolish? Loyalty to the alliance with America should not be confused with zealous standing at attention before Big Brother. It also includes the right and the obligation to point out to him that he is bombing himself and the world into a dangerous dead-end.

Prudence is presently again being replaced with the motto: We have started and can now no longer go back. Like an undertow current, this statement is an old well-known law of every war. It leads to more and more escalation. The more civilians are killed, the louder the Friday demonstrations of the Islamic world will become. If the bombardments are continued during Ramadan, this can become the fuse for a worldwide explosion.

The strategists from Washington to Berlin have dramatically miscalculated. It is still not too late to turn back. But this assumes self-reflection and reconsideration and self-possession that are not to be found at the NATO local pub table. To say nothing of respecting for the ethics that each one of the many has learned who call themselves “Christian” and want to derive their party name from the word Christian. Christ warned already 2000 years ago: The one who takes up the sword will perish by the sword. This holds true not only for Islamists, but also for Americans. Apparently they now want to test in Afghanistan whether the law of sowing and reaping also holds true for them. Do the Europeans want to let themselves be drawn into this? How would it be if one were to finally take the teachings of the Nazarene seriously? What would this mean? One would not seek retaliation, but would first think about what is behind the Islamic terrorism. One cannot simply equate their running amok, as little as one can justify it, with the pure lust to destroy. The question: “Why do you hate us so much?” would go further than the bombardment of a country that is already destroyed. Political conversations with the international leaders of the Islamic world can not be avoided in the long run by the Americans and their allies, because this worldwide movement cannot be calmed down with bombs. The aversion to such a dialogue, and the concern of giving in by taking up such a dialogue, are a sign of weakness. Right from the start it blocks the possibility of healing the wounds that led to the worldwide Islamic terrorism – from Algiers to Luxor, Där es Saläam and Nairobi all the way to New York and Washington. To these wounds also belong the Palestinian problem in the Mid East, the stationing of American troops in Saudi Arabia and the inhuman embargo against Iraq, which does not harm Saddam Hussein, but only his people. The one who calls himself Christian cannot always push the Sermon on the Mount to the side whenever things get serious. Perhaps he cannot love his enemies right away, but he must talk to them in any case.

The Armaments Industry Is Booming

What could one do with 200 billion dollars if one just had them? One could do something for world hunger, to which 40 million people fall victim every year. One could create jobs in underdeveloped countries, by building roads, small and medium scale businesses, agricultural development … And what is actually happening with this tidy sum of money that is almost as large as the entire national German economy? Take three guesses: It will be used to pay for 3000 fighter jets which the Pentagon recently ordered from the armaments conglomerate Lockheed Martin. The competition for this greatest armaments contract of all time lasted 5 years. In the end, Boeing lost out to the armaments company that now has in reality the monopoly on fighter jets. Orders from Denmark, Norway, Canada, Turkey and Israel are also expected. What a coincidence that the contract was given out just now! And what a coincidence that the jets will be built in Texas of all places, the home state of the American President, and will create 9000 new jobs! A rogue who thinks bad things.

Is a Worldwide Economic Crisis Looming?

Fear prevails – of new terrorist strikes, of expansion of the war in Afghanistan and more and more of a global economic crisis. The downtrend started already months ago: Since the beginning of the year 360,000 people have lost their jobs in the computer and telecommunications industries in Great Britain. Large Japanese high-tech firms are writing their mid-year balances in red and want to strike 80,000 jobs. And since September 11 the airline industry is caving in: Boeing is letting 30,000 workers go, American Airlines, 20,000.

And in Germany, too, the situation is dramatically coming to a head. Last week the six leading economic research institutes in the country made their fall prognosis: The country is on the “edge of a recession.” The Chancellor contradicts this. The former head of the Federal Reserve Bank, Karl Otto Pöhl, once Secretary of State under Chancellor Helmut Schmidt and architect of the European economic alliances, speaks more clearly: “We are not at the edge of a recession, we are already in the midst of one.” There is no doubt: Unemployment is rising again and income from taxes is sinking dramatically. The most recent poll by the German Chamber of Commerce is also spreading gloom: In contrast to the government, the business sector is not counting on an upswing soon. Business activity was paralyzed already before September 11. And it was further dampened by the terrorist strikes. For the year 2002 economic specialists are reckoning with a growth of 0.5% at the most, and 4 million unemployed. And one also hears that Siemens is planning to let 17,600 people go. Are these symptoms of a general decline?

Nothing is more certain than the uncertainty over what the future will bring. The magazine Spiegel asks: Are we experiencing the beginning of a third world war? Is this only a long-lasting engagement with Islamic fanatics or has the worst already been surmounted in a few weeks? Are we receiving the first signals of a worldwide economic crisis with millions of unemployed and a noticeable impoverishment, also in the industrial countries? Or will the world economy recover again after a few shaky months? Could the uncertainty spread into a worldwide hysteria?

No one dares to make a prognosis anymore. Some look back at similar situations. For instance, the beginning of the Korean War in the early 1950s. It triggered an economic boom because the USA increased their spending for armaments tremendously. The boom affected European countries, especially Germany, whose exports of machines tripled during the 1950s. And how was it during the Gulf War? Rising oil prices, high interest rates and diminishing trust on the part of the consumers led to a recession in America. Germany withstood much through the effects of reunification.

But the situation at the beginning of the Golf war was harmless in comparison with the present world conflict. Today it is not a war against one country, but a fight with an invisible enemy, who can strike at any time and everywhere and has led to a complete uncertainty that is constantly rising. The economy, according to Ludwig Erhard, the father of the German economic miracle, consists 50% of psychology. Today this means that half of what happens in the economy is determined by fear. Fear reigns in the conferences of high officials of international conglomerates; fear overcomes entire armies of workers on assembly lines and computers – fear for their jobs, fear of the future.

Never has this civilization been so shaken by fear as it is today. What does this want to tell us? One can no longer depend on this world. Then on what or on whom? On God? Many are also accusing Him. Why does He not help us in the misery of terrorism and war? Because He gave us the freedom to keep His commandments or to ignore them. If we do the later, then according to the law of cause and effect, we will have to bear the consequences. God does not punish us, but we punish ourselves. This holds true for world politics as well as for the everyday life of each individual. At the same time, there is a chance in this: The one who no longer counts on the world, instead make himself aware that he is a child of God and lives accordingly, will step by step find security, which will gradually lessen the undertow of fear.

From Bonn to Marrakech

While we are all staring at war and terrorism, another time bomb continues to tick. If we do nothing, we are threatened in this century with a warming of the climate of up to 6° Celsius and a rise in the ocean level of almost a meter. Whole coastal regions are faced with sinking, storms, floods and draughts loom at the doorstep of Europe.

This is why in 1997 good resolutions were made at the environmental conference in Kyoto: The plan was by 2013 to reduce the emission of carbon dioxide to 5.2% less than the level was in 1990. This was to stop the longterm trend of heating up the atmosphere, if by the year 2015 carbon dioxide levels were reduced by 60%. But no one talks about this kind of consistent goal-setting anymore. The USA straight-out rejected the Kyoto protocol, despite the modesty of its resolutions. It would harm the interests of the American economy.

At the climate conference in Bonn in July of this year, the Europeans together with Japan and Russia wanted to forge a coalition to rescue the Earth’s climate and to arm the Kyoto protocol with teeth. But it only came to a bad compromise: Japan, Australia and Canada are allowed to calculate forest areas and reforestation measures against their emissions. Trading of emission amounts on a large scale was also declared allowable. And the sanctions for not fulfilling the obligations of the agreement are essentially limited to raising the climatic goals for the next period.

Presently 6000 environmental experts from 180 countries are meeting in Marrakech for a new conference in order to equip the Bonn compromise with a firm structure of regulations. But new difficulties threaten, if the trade should be expanded to include pollution rights, above all in relation to Russia and Eastern Europe which presently do not use all the emissions rights granted to them. The fulfillment of obligations must not only be on paper, but must also be connected with sanctions that will be felt.

Besides this, it does not only have to do with the climate, as important as this is for the Earth. According to an investigation by the World Health Organization in 1995, approximately 460,000 people worldwide died an “avoidable death” through air pollution, which they were exposed to in heavily populated areas. In 1997 it was already 700,000 and in the year 2020, 8 million citizens of the Earth will be affected by life-threatening air pollution. While mankind stares at war and terrorism, a catastrophe creeps forward whose victims will not die in a hail of bombs, but of asthma and bronchitis, or they will drown in floods or be buried by landslides. At some point, the last climate conference will have taken place – not because the problem has been solved, but because the conference participants can no longer meet.

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